Historically I have taken time, usually around this time, to observe the political situation and then project what I feel is a likely outcome. Clearly the presidential race is much different this year, and sadly not an improvement from four years ago, but here’s my best guesses...if anybody cares.
The GOP
The Clown Car has discarded a lot of excess baggage, so things are really getting interesting. It would seem that it’s really a three-way race now, although some still seem to harbor the idea that the front-runners will all falter and Kasich will suddenly arise from the ashes. I doubt it.
It now appears likely that Trump might well win the nomination. That seemed impossible a few months ago, but things have changed, or rather, they haven’t. The traditional GOP ignored him, assuming he would simply self-destruct. Rather than confront him...or attack him...when he was still a fringe candidate, they all simply believed he’d fail, and blissfully assumed somebody elsewould take him down. That didn’t happen. Cruz and Rubio are going to motor on, but they share some common problems.
There is the never-ending issue of “natural born” citizen, and unlike the fiasco relating to President Obama, these questions have a certain level of validity. If Cruz were to win the nomination there will immediately be a series of lawsuits challenging his eligibility, and it’s entirely possible that one or more will initially succeed. Assuming that, it’s possible that his name wouldn’t appear on a state ballot somewhere, and that would force all kinds of interesting things, all negative. Of course there would be outrage, but very real issues for the GOP too.
The real mystery might be Trump’s running mate. Honestly I have no clue who that might end up being. Some have suggested Cruz, and I suppose that’s as good a guess as any...at least for now.
The Democrats
This race got a lot more interesting than anyone expected a year ago. It was generally agreed that it was “Hillary’s turn.” The stars seemed utterly aligned. She’d survived Benghazi (multiple times) and even seemed to have weathered the Great Email Scandal. In the process numerous GOP luminaries had been openly shamed by admissions that the whole investigation process was nothing but a political ploy.
Then...along came Bernie. Nobody saw that coming.
Suddenly that staid walk to the nomination turned into a real horse-race, and the DNC began to worry. What if Bernie began to mess up the script?
In a series of moves reminiscent of the Bungling Watergate Conspirators, the Debbie and the DNC just kept screwing up, only making the outcome more and more in doubt. They feared an open race, so they tried to limit the debates. That didn’t work. They now have opened the DNC to corporate contributions. Another bad move. And they continue to play the superdelegate game, showing Hillary with a huge lead...while the truth is that she and Bernie are in a dead heat with the committed delegates.
Who makes it to the Big Dance?
I’m going to suggest two options, which I admit is the chicken way to go. But I think the important part is that the outcomes are much different so maybe it matters.
Possibility #1...not necessarily the most likely.
Hillary vs. Trump
What a mess. The GOP, led by their Hater in Chief, will turn loose every conceivable piece of dirt, many fictitious, and run the most vile campaign the US has ever seen. Sadly Hillary has enough negatives to make this idea work. Trump has already shown there is no low too low, and the genetic hatred of all things Clinton will only fire him up more. We’ll see a race where honest discussions of the issues will never happen.
Although Trump’s negatives are equally bad, they’re not government negatives, and I think that swings the race to him. Lots of people seem to want to hate Hillary, and somewhere in that mix is also the historic misogyny of Trump’s base. Ugly will find entirely new meanings...and Wall Street will have to choose between one of their own (sort of) and the one they fear might just take action against them due to the Bernie Influence. Trump doesn’t need their money, but he’ll likely end up with some of it anyway.
It’s too much to actually contemplate a Trump presidency, but a Hillary presidency would be nothing more than a continuation of the GOP Program of Hate. It would no longer be based upon race, but the combined factors of Clinton and Sex would, if anything, be worse. If the GOP held the Senate, we can imagine more years of utter obstruction.
Possibility #2...a definite possibility.
Bernie vs. Trump
Now this gets real interesting. Both are, to some degree, populists. Ironically they actually appeal to many of the same voters. Trump will clearly carry the racists and haters, but Bernie will syphon off many of the anti-government folks. He quite likely could force the campaign to be about issues and policies...a place where Trump will seriously fail. He can talk about foreign policy, and Trump has no clues therein. He can talk about income inequality, and Trump is an example of the problem, a situation where he can’t...and won’t...deny it. He just doesn’t see the problem.
A Bernie presidency would depend somewhat upon the Senate situation, and I think there is one thing happening now that might just define that result.
The Final Straw
The GOP has continually taken the low road, appealing to the racists, haters, and bigots in their program of Just Say No. But finally I think they may have detonated their own downfall.
The idea that they might not approve a Supreme Court nominee from President Obama is just fine. There is a lot at stake. However, their pre-emptive strike of saying they not only won’t approve somebody, but will refuse to even hold hearings...for a person who doesn’t even exist yet, crossed a boundary that far too many people see as outrage. They have railed against the President for abusing his Constitutional authority, but now they have openly stated the won’t perform their own...and that’s angering lots of people. Recent polls, admittedly long before November, suggest that some GOP incumbents will be in trouble if they carry through on the threats...but they have painted themselves in a corner, and should they relent they’ll anger their own base...something they are loath to do
The Short Answer
.Bernie and Trump are the nominees. Bernie wins, and the GOP can’t hold the Senate. And...won’t that make for interesting times.